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Tyler · Site Admin Joined: 06 Mar 2006 Posts: 12865

High Chance for Tropical Cyclone Development in Bay of Campeche Late this Week

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located over the northwestern Carribbean Sea, moving west. This disturbance is forecast to move across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, where an area of low pressure is expected to form. Environmental conditions should gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression by the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has given the system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. The system would likely move west-northwest or northwest through the Bay of Campeche, likely directly impacting the states of Veracruz or Tamaulipas, Mexico (although certainty on this is low until an actual cyclone develops).
At this time we are forecasting increasing swells and seas over the weekend and early next week from this potential system, increasing the threat for dangerous rip currents along beaches on the barrier islands Saturday through Monday.
We are still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms Today (Tuesday), with a gradual reduction in chances and coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday as drier air works into the area.
Deeper tropical moisture on the northern side of the tropical system may impact South Texas, especially if the system takes a more northwest track,leading to at least scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.
Please stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center and future email briefings and statements from the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi for updates to the forecast for this weekend and into early next week as confidence increases.

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roosterfish · Pony Mullet Joined: 11 Mar 2013 Posts: 73

Her name will be Ingrid, some models on other weather sites show a high probability of it going to the Texas border. Mike's weather page good site on FB.. or hurricane spagetti models.

Chef Lefty · Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:54 pm Post subject:

TWC is currently giving this one a 60% chance of being a named storm.

Could this be our drought buster???
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B-1 83 · Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:31 pm Post subject:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/invest-93L?map=model
Come on, northern track! A nice, stout tropical storm would be just fine. Just dump a bunch of rain north and west of Mathis!

fishinglady · Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:28 pm Post subject:

Careful what you wish for. A lot of us live in the flood zone, less than 10-15 feet above sea level, and it could turn into a hurricane.

Sept. hurricanes have not been kind to Corpus....1919 Sept. wiped out Corpus below the bluff downtown; 1961 Sept. 10-- Hurricane Carla; 1967 Sept.10- Beaulah; 1988 Sept. 16 Gilbert....and then there was Sept. 13, 2008-- Ike..was supposed to hit Corpus then turned north and hit Galveston.

ironmanstan · Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:33 pm Post subject:

My rain total at TX-NU-56 over the last few days is 3.70 inches.
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FoldCatOne · Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 5:09 pm Post subject:

Tropical update from Accuweather.com as of !4:30 local

"....disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean are associated with a tropical wave that is about to push westward into the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave will bring an enhanced threat for showers and storms to the Yucatan tonight through Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday, this tropical wave will start to emerge westward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions and some model guidance suggest that this wave will have the opportunity to acquire tropical characteristics over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week into this weekend. Regardless of tropical development, an enhanced threat for heavier showers and thunderstorms is possible across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. "

alphabet15 · Pony Mullet Joined: 23 May 2007 Posts: 57

This could be the pre-dove season rain event we get every year to scatter the birds.

poops2260 · Flour Bluffian in training Joined: 10 Jul 2011 Posts: 286

^^^^ same thing I thought but the birds will be shot sooner or later!!!
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flounder daddy · Guest

weather underground predicting almost 6" of rain for sunday. We shall see, they are usually pretty good.

ironmanstan · Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:42 am Post subject:

Lastest models are pushing it a little higher up the coast. This could be a lake filler. Lets hope it don't go to high up the coast or we will get ZERO again.
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FishLady · Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 8:03 am Post subject:

Sounds scary to me!
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FishLady

hickroots07 · Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:32 am Post subject:

Jetty Bandit · Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 10:14 am Post subject:

This is a great way to get fall surf fishing in motion IMO
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FoldCatOne · Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:39 pm Post subject:

Gulf tropical Outlook from Accuweather.com as of 15:24 9/11/13"

"..... showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized across the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday. This tropical wave will bring an enhanced threat for showers and storms to the Yucatan tonight through Thursday. On Thursday, this wave will emerge westward into the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions and some model guidance suggest that this wave will have the opportunity to acquire tropical characteristics over the Bay of Campeche as early as Thursday. This disturbance will have to be watched closely for the end of the week into this weekend for tropical development. Regardless of tropical development, an enhanced threat for heavier showers and thunderstorms is possible across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. One last area of disturbed weather is situated about 600 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands.This broad area of low pressure will track westward and likely pass just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of this week and this weekend. At this time, environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for tropical development.